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Sep 2022

Non-stationarity in ecological time series: Statistical and mathematical approaches

Tipo de Evento: Seminario
Organiza: Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias
Público: Abierto a todo público
Horario: 15:00:00 hr
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There are many reasons for this non-stationarity in ecological dynamics. For instance, recent studies have shown switch between different dynamics at multi-decadal scales, triggered by small environmental changes in different regions for different species. Long-term changes in climate and/or human activities have also considerable effects on the dynamics of numerous ecological systems explaining they transient behaviors. Wavelet analysis has been suggested as a way to overcome this complexities. Wavelet analysis performs a time-scale decomposition of the signal, which means the estimation of its spectral characteristics as a function of time. This approach provides no information about the underlying ecological mechanisms, yet can provide useful clues about the non-stationary nature of the underlying ecological processes , which then can be incorporated in mathematical models. In this context, I will also demonstrate the efficiency of stochastic models with time varying parameters coupled with Bayesian approaches and discuss their advantages.


Bernard Cazelles

Institut de Biologie de l’École Normale Supérieure UMR8197, Eco- Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France and Unité Mixte Internationale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.

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